In an AFC East matchup in week 12 the New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills. In the last meeting the Jets defeated the Bills in Buffalo 27-11 and look forward to playing against Buffalo again, since that was the last time that they won a game.
Since that win against Buffalo, the Jets lost two straight games to the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos. Now they are just 5-5 on the season and they have a realistic chance of missing the NFL playoffs.
The Bills are in the same boat and could easily miss the playoffs if they don’t start winning soon. That could get even tougher after it was announced that the Bills will be without running back Fred Jackson for the rest of the season. The Bills will give carries to C.J. Spiller in hopes of pulling off the upset against the Jets.
The NFL week 12 odds opened with the Jets as 8.5 point home favorite against Buffalo and that number has been bet up to 11 at some offshore sportsbooks. That line move is due to the injury news and to the fact that 67% of the public betting money is on the Jets.
The Bills still have Ryan Fitzpatrick under center and can move the ball on offense. The Bills have also thrived as an underdog in the past as they are 9-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New York and the underdog is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
One of my favorite angles to bet in the NFL is fading a favorite that is playing horrible football. The Jets are playing horrible ball right now and it is starting to affect them in the clubhouse. Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan are not seeing eye-to-eye. Ryan allowed Mark Brunell to take some reps with the first team this week in an attempt to send a message to his quarterback. This could have a negative effect on Sanchez and if he commits a mistake early it will be a long game for the Jets.
The Bills will be inspired to play well and look for a big game by Spiller as he finally gets a chance to run with this offense. They may not win outright, but the points are the play.
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