College Football Lock Week 11: Oregon Ducks Give Stanford The First Loss of the Year
All eyes will be on Stanford this week as the Cardinal hosts the Oregon Ducks in one of the biggest game of the week in college football. On the line for the Cardinal is the chance to finish the year undefeated as many believe this is the toughest game left on the schedule.
For the Ducks a win against Stanford will get them back into the national title talk and give them the edge in the BCS Standings.
The college football odds for week 11 opened with the Cardinal listed as three point favorites. That number has since moved to 3.5 although the public consensus in this game is split with 51% of the public on the underdog Ducks. The only reason that this line moved over the key number of three is because smart money is coming in on the Ducks and that caused the sportsbooks to move it.
Stanford is all about quarterback Andrew Luck. Luck is arguably the best player in college football and will undoubtedly be the first pick in the NFL draft. He has put up great numbers this year leading the Cardinal to a perfect record and a shot at a National Championship. Now if the Cardinal wins this game they can clinch the Pac-12 North and remain unbeaten on the season.
Stanford is perfect in more ways than one.
The Cardinal are a perfect 52-for-52 in the red zone, and 41 of those scores have been touchdowns. They are undefeated on the season and they are a perfect 9-0 against the spread this year. This brings up some interesting systems that are against Stanford this week. Play against any team that has won seven or more games in a row ATS (42-27-2, 60.9% ATS since 1985) Stanford obviously bucked this trend already this season, but the correction is due and this is not the only system against the Cardinal this week.
Play against any team that has won eight or more games in a row ATS (13-9-1, 59.1% ATS since 1985) and Play against any team that has won nine or more games in a row ATS (2-4, 66.7% ATS since 1985)
On the flip side, the Ducks have a system play in their favor for this game. Play on any divisional road underdog coming off of a road game (116-85-1, 57.7% ATS since 2005). This leads into the bevy of college football betting trends that favor the Ducks.
The Ducks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings against Stanford, 29-13 ATS in their last 42 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game, and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. That number is just as good on the college football highway as they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
The Ducks defense is a bit underrated because of the explosive offense, but they should not be overlooked. They are allowing just 212 yards per game which is 60 yards better than Stanford and that could make the difference in this matchup. It should also be noted that the Ducks special teams play is outstanding and will help with field position.
Darron Thomas steals the headlines from Luck as he guides his Ducks to a win over Stanford in week 11 as the lock of the week.
College Football Week 11 Picks and Predictions: