Wednesday night college football gets started with a MAC battle between the Western Michigan Broncos and the Miami (OH) Redhawks. This game has the potential to come down to the last minute and be a very exciting early week game.
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The opening college football week 12 odds listed the Redhawks as three point favorites. That line has lowered to below the key number and now sits at 2.5 at some of the offshore sportsbooks. Early returns show 64% of the public betting money is on the home team. This can often be deceiving in mid-week games because the public does not study the MAC so they will lean towards the home favorite every time.
The Western Michigan broncos are off a painful three point loss to Toledo. In the past two games, it scored 108 points and piled up 1,245 yards (635 against Toledo and 610 against Ball State on Oct. 29). So they have the talent, but losing a must-win game to the Rockets could damage their psyche. The loss was demoralizing because now they are just 3-3 in conference and cannot afford to lose again.
The Redhawks are also off a very tough loss against Temple, and like the Broncos need to win out. Quarterback Zac Dysert had two interceptions in that game and he was sacked seven times. Despite the loss Nick Harwell, who caught 15 passes for 229 yards, was a bright spot. The offense looked decent at times, but overall the Redhawks could not have played worse.
The college football betting trends favor the Redhawks in this contest. The Redhawks have a habit of rebounding (and covering) after a bad defensive game as they are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Redhawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite and the Broncos are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog. The Broncos are 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog and 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
The loss to Toledo affected Western Michigan as it effectively ended their season. It included an argument on the sideline between Coach Bill Cubit and defensive tackle Drew Nowak when frustrations mounted on a defense that allowed over 800 yards.
The Redhawks offensive line needs to make amends for last week and should be able to manhandle the Broncos defense and win and cover at home.
College Football Picks and Predictions For Week 12