The NFL picks for week six will focus on several popular games, but the most popular game will undoubtedly be the Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots.
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Tony Romo and the Cowboys are coming in off a bye week and will go up against Tom Brady and the Patriots in the game of the week.
The NFL opening point spread in this game has the Patriots listed as seven point favorites. This number seems huge and the betting public agrees as over 70% of the betting action at offshore sportsbooks is on the Dallas Cowboys. This isn’t changing the line as it has gone up to 7.5 in some places.
Are the Patriots really seven points better than the Cowboys? The Patriots were 9 point favorites against the New York Jets and although that seemed high, the Patriots pushed that number, and covered for those lucky enough to get lower than nine. The line closed at 7.5 to 8 in some offshore locations. Since the line was dead on in the last game the odd makers had no choice, but to open up a big number in this game.
The Patriots defense is beatable. They looked fine against the Jets, but that is a team that is having major offensive problems. The Jets dropped several key passes that would have kept drives alive.
The Cowboys have had a week off to prepare for the Patriots. They needed that week to get healthy as several key players are recovering from injury. They also will use that off week to try and handle Tom Brady.
The Cowboys defensive coordinator is Rob Ryan, the brother of Jets head coach Rex Ryan. Rex will be more than happy to share some secrets if it means the Patriots could lose a game. The Cowboys have a talented defense and will be able to pressure Brady, which is the key to beating the Patriots.
The Cowboys are 6-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games as an underdog, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.
This game will be close and fun to watch. This will be a great showcase of two dynamic offenses meeting up in the game of the week and anything can happen.
While I don’t always side with the public perception, I do in this game, as I believe the Cowboys could win outright, making the points a gift in this spot.