Head coach Chris Petersen has done a magnificent job of bringing the Boise State football program into the national spotlight, but this year they have fallen short of a BCS bowl game.
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The Broncos opened up as 11 point favorites and with 83% of the public backing from the early sports betting money, this line has moved to 14 points in some offshore locations. This line is partly due to the explosive offense of the Broncos, led by senior quarterback Kellen Moore.
Moore and the Broncos have been on the cusp of going to the BCS Championship game seemingly every year, but they have always feel just short. This has begun to wear on the team and was very evident in the press conference held earlier this month.
"Everybody is just very tired of the BCS," Petersen said. "I think that's the bottom line. Everybody's frustrated. Nobody even really knows what to do anymore. It doesn't make sense to anybody. I don't think anyone's happy anywhere."
This is not the quote uttered by a head coach that is happy to be playing in the MAACO bowl. In fact Boise played in this same game a year ago, adding to the mediocrity of this visit. Although they won in a blowout a year ago, the offense for the Sun Devils may be up to the task.
Dennis Erickson will coach his last game and it will be interesting to see if he can rally his troops for one last victory. The defense is one weak point for the Sun Devils. Arizona State allows 419.5 yards per game and will need all hands on deck if they want to stop the Broncos. Most likely that will not happen, but what will happen is that the Sun Devil’s offense will keep up with Boise.
Quarterback Brock Osweiler is not a household name but he is putting up numbers that are comparable to Moore’s. The offense will be able to score and should keep this game within the number. There are also several trends that are favor in the Sun Devil’s in this game.
The Sun Devils are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater and 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. Although the Broncos are known for their high scoring offense, they actually struggle to cover the large number. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Boise is not excited to be here again and will not have the motivation to win big. Arizona State will keep this game well within the number.