This week the Green Bay Packers take their undefeated record on the road to Minnesota where they will battle the Vikings in a NFC divisional battle.
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The Green Bay Packers are playing great football and they look like the team that won a Super bowl a year ago. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is putting up MVP numbers and leading his team to easy victories every week. They head to Minnesota to take on a dysfunctional Vikings team.
The opening NFL point spread in this contest came as no surprise as the Packers opened up as nine point favorites. This line will bounce around as rumors were confirmed out of Minnesota that Donovan McNabb will be benched for rookie Christian Ponder, who played well in relief. This line can be found as low as 7.5 in some places as the vast majority of the public is on the Packers. The latest line report shows that 87% of the consensus is on the road team in this contest. This line should skyrocket.
The Vikings should not be counted out so quickly in this contest.
They are at home and divisional dogs play tough at home, (just look at Tampa Bay last week) and the Packers do have some vulnerability. They are ranked third to last in pass defense and that could help with Christian Ponder getting the call at quarterback, who is looking to prove he could be a starter in this league. Opening up the passing game could set up the run and open up holes for standout running back Adrian Peterson, or vice versa.
If the Vikings want to win this game, they will need to keep Aaron Rodgers in check, and since that is nearly impossible, the best option, may be to keep the ball away from him. This can be accomplished if they succeed on offense.
The Packers have performed very well in this series, but if there is a place that the Vikings play well, it’s in the comfort of the home dome. The Vikings are 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0 and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games after failing to cover the number.
The public will be loading up on the Packers this week, but covering a big number against a home divisional dog in the NFL, is harder than it looks. Take the points and the Vikings in this game.