Thanksgiving football is a tradition in Dallas and the Cowboys have been mainstay on Turkey day for years. This year is no exception as Tony Romo and the Cowboys will host the Miami Dolphins. A few weeks ago this looked like a slam dunk-easy win for the Dallas Cowboys, but lately there is reason to believe that the Miami Dolphins can beat the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving.

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The latest NFL week 12 spread on this game opened with the Cowboys as seven point favorites in this game. The public came out early and laid money on the Cowboys bumping this line up to 7.5 points at several offshore sportsbooks. With 57% of the public on Dallas this line is likely to go up right before kickoff.

Tony Sparano has been on the hot seat most of the year, but it’s starting to cool down a little bit since the Dolphins have been winning. The Fins had to Dallas on a three game winning streak and they are looking to make it four on Turkey day. Matt Moore has taken to the starting job under center and is warming to the offense. He is spreading the ball around and every week he seems to get better. Along with the resurgent play of Reggie Bush, the Dolphins should not be taken lightly.

The Cowboys offense has looked good with the steady play of Romo at quarterback, but as a team they lack killer instinct. They play down to lesser teams and will sleepwalk through this game. Rob Ryan’s defense has looked awful at times and last year nearly allowed 300 yards to Rex Grossman. They had the chance to close out the Redskins, but could not pull it off. If they don’t improve against the Dolphins they could lose this game.

The NFL trends are in favor of the road team in this game. The Cowboys are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, and 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite overall.

The Dolphins are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 road games, 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog, and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Dolphins play well on the road, have played well of late and are getting too many points against a Dallas team that is prone to playing down to their opposition.

NFL Thanksgiving Picks: Miami Dolphins +7.5

Other NFL Week 12 Picks and Predictions:

Green Bay vs. Detroit