The NFL upsets in week seven are difficult to find if you do not what you are looking for. This week one of the games that I have circled as a potential upset is the game that features the New Orleans Saints at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
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Here are just a few of the reasons this game could see the underdog come out on top.
The first indication is the line. The opening point spread in this game showed that the Saints were labeled as five point favorites. The Saints are pulling in the majority of the public betting action as sportsbooks indicate 79% of the money is coming in on the road team. However the line is going down as the latest line in this game indicates the Saints are now four point favorites. This is a clear indication that sharps are laying money on the home underdog.
The public is quick to react and they have a short memory. Tampa was dominated last week in San Francisco and the public does not want to touch them but there are plenty of reasons to believe they will beat the Saints this week.
The Saints are on the road again and playing on the road for consecutive weeks will begin to wear on even the best teams in the NFL. The Buccaneers are a home divisional underdog and that is always a great spot I look for. The Saints defense is beatable and has allowed opponents to keep it close.
The Bucs have an injury issue as LeGarrette Blount left the game against the 49ers with a knee injury and may not suit up this week. Ernest Graham is more than a capable of taking over the workload in this game or splitting carries if Blount cannot play the entire game. Josh Freeman is the key in this game. He is more than capable of keeping this game close and pulling off the huge victory at home.
The Saints have a pile of NFL trends week 7 going against them in this game. The Saints are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a win, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 against the NFC South, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last five against the NFC South, 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog overall.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are four point underdogs, but there is a very good chance that they beat the Saints this weekend.
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