The NFL season is winding down and all of the teams are beginning to know what role they will play in the last few weeks. Some teams are playing for a high seed or home field advantage, some are playing just to get in, and a few are playing for spoilers.
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When the Detroit Lions host the San Diego Chargers, both of these teams will be playing to get into the playoffs. The NFL week 16 odds opened up with the Lions as 3 point favorites, but that number has dropped to as low as 1 in some places as the public (83%) is betting on the Chargers. This heavy following is due to a few things.
The Chargers are off a big win against the Baltimore Ravens in a Sunday night showcase game and they have a recent history of finishing strong. While this is true, the line has been diminished and the value lies with the home team.
The Chargers have a patchwork offensive line that is exploitable and on defense, they don’t have anyone that can cover Calvin Johnson. All teams have problems covering one of the best wide receivers in the league, but the Bolts will have to double cover Johnson and that will allow other players to have a big day.
The NFL betting trends reveal that the Bolts struggle in this spot. The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on turf and 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a winning home record. The Lions are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of three points or less.
Matthew Stafford looks as though he is improving every week and with a healthy Kevin Smith coming out of the back field, and that will equate to another offensive outburst by the Lions in a home game they need to win to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot.
NFL Week 16 Picks and Predictions